Monday, October 17, 2005

eBay and Skype logic

Why did eBay pay billions for Skype? Because it was a great deal. Here's why:

The most expensive elements of putting together a telecommunications network are 1) capital investment for infrastructure 2) customer acquisition costs and 3) a billing system. Now let's consider each of these elements for Skype under the eBay umbrella:

Skype customers use their own computer an internet connection to make calls, so there is essentially zero capital investment required to create the network. Nice. eBay is great at identifying projects with high return on very little capital.

Skype ID's look a lot like eBay ID's --in fact they are essentailly the same. If you have an eBay ID, you already entered the data you essentially need to have a Skype account--thus, eBay is one mass emailing away from establishing the largest telecom network in the world---at NO COST to eBay. Very nice.

Skype users can use Paypal for their bill payment. Convenient that eBay owns Paypal--maybe thats how eBay became aware of Skype in the first place--the guys at the paypal division gave Meg a call, and said, "Check out the guys at Skype, because their Paypal billings are going through the roof". Now that they are one big family, Paypal becomes the deFacto billing system for this new global telecommunications service---at ZERO COST since it has already been built and integrated. Does it get any better than this?

In fact it does, because aside from the value of the business itself, eBay gets the derivative benefit of now connecting it's users for free via voice. Voice communications build trust more easily than email. Trust it the basis for the eBay economy. Skype will further enhance the value of the eBay network and increase already impenetrable barriers to entry. They already have Skype Me buttons you can add to your website--or your eBay listing.

Monday, July 25, 2005

MIT Media Lab: Reality Mining

MIT Media Lab: Reality Mining The Reality Mining project at MIT uses the cell phones of students and Faculty to track their behavior and then predict their future behavior. They claim that it's accurate in predicting someone's next move 85% of the time. This is pretty poor performance. If I know the MIT student is in the lab, there's a 100% chance of correctly predicting their next activity will be to go to their dorm room. Similarly, if they are in the dorm, there's a 100% chance that they are going back to the lab. I'm guessing they had a bad sample set, and that 30% of the students were from Harvard and they had a 50/50 chance of predicting if they would show up at lab versus sleep in, or if they would go to a bar after lab or take the bus to Wellsley.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Wow! Online presentation of a book used by the CIA on Intelligence Analysis. Big focus upon how our brains are wired to make mistakes.

Del.icio.us - Complete Tool Collection

Quick Online Tips: Absolutely Del.icio.us - Complete Tool Collection: "kmarks manager. It allows you to easily post sites you like to your personal collection of links, to categorize those sites with keywords, and to share your collection not only between your own browsers and machines, but also with others. RSS feed"

Friday, July 22, 2005

Slashdot | Mac OS X Gaining Ground In Corporate Environs

Slashdot | Mac OS X Gaining Ground In Corporate Environs Apple's strategy is working. the best way to unseat microsoft is to get more developers working on their platform. By basing OS X on Unix, they've captured the Linux community and have done just that. The money is in the enterprise, and now the numbers are starting to show it. Folks have been so focused upon desktop Linux as an idea without realizing that it already existed--it's called Tiger/Panther by Apple.

Thursday, July 21, 2005

The Forgotten Technology

The Forgotten Technology OMG! This guy has clearly nailed a simple explanation for how the pyramids were built. What blows my mind is the combination of the solution's obvious simplicity with the fact that it's been thousands of years before anyone re-discovered the idea. How many other "obvious" ideas are right before our eyes that we don't see, yet have the capacity to fundamentally change our capabilites and the world?